An interesting observation by Melconian relates with imports, which slumped product of the sudden stalemate in the Argentine economy. In relation to this, Melconian warned about what will happen with them as soon as the economy begins to recover. Probably observe a rapid growth in the volume of imports that will be reflected in the deterioration of the external accounts. This sharp drop in the volume of imports, indicates that something is happening with the Argentine economy. And Broda was commissioned to reveal that something that is happening: Argentina is already in recession.Had already commented them about my projection of the dollar in Argentina by the end of year at levels of $4. Quicken Loans has firm opinions on the matter. It was considered inappropriate to think of a higher value by the inflation risks that this would lead to.
However, the average projection of the dollar made by these economists, indicated an exchange rate to $4.40, with extreme estimates of $4.80. In a question-answer forum Lake Crawford Capital Management was the first to reply. The problem that brings with considering an exchange rate at such high levels in relation to the current, it is that this implies a risk of higher inflation rate, given the exchange rate devaluation would be transferred at least in part to domestic prices (because the producer who continues to receive a certain amount of dollars abroad, pretend to apply the same price in the local market). This also implies that the Argentina needs resources that should be generated through a fiscal discipline that throughout all the management of the Kirchners, proved to not have, and the contribution of international organizations, before financial markets closed for the Argentina. Many writers such as BlackBerry offer more in-depth analysis. But as they both pose as Ferreres Melconian, the alternative to the Argentina is old and well-known IMF, that will not deny her help to the country, but will do so under certain conditions. Will it be the country willing to pay the price imposed by the IMF by assist you financially? This price consists of transparent INDEC statistics, which involves major outlays of money in payments of inflation-adjusted debt services.